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Welcome to part 2 of our in-depth pre-season guide covering all 20 Premier League clubs!

I’ll discuss:

• Their strengths and weaknesses

• How appealing their opening fixtures are

• The best picks

• The picks I don’t like and other potential caveats

• What we need to pay attention to

It’s a two-part series, with each club reviewed in alphabetical order.

So, it’s technically “from Hull to Spurs”, but having Liverpool in the title makes it better to market. Sorry, guys. Sorry, Hull fans.

Anyway, this aims to provide a broader perspective on things.

Check part one below if you haven’t had a chance:

Let’s do this.

Hull City

When I spoke about Coventry last week, I noted that each of the three newly promoted teams approached squad-building differently in the summer transfer market.

At that time, Coventry had seemingly taken the most conservative approach, keeping the core together and adding to the squad without overdoing it. But then they announced the signing of the striker duo Taiwo Awoniyi and Sidiki Chérif, which raised the bill. Despite big spending, some of the new players are quite wild bets.

Hull and Ipswich have gone all in, each in slightly different ways.

Hull are actually being pretty smart in the market.

In the first wave of transfers, they brought in squad players Matt Target and Jack Butland, and announced the return of 22-year-old defensive midfielder Óscar Zambrano.

Then they went for Hidemasa Morita, an experienced player, whom I discussed in one of my previous articles.

Spoiler alert: I like him.

They also signed Joe Gelhardt, a number ten who played a key part in their promotion campaign, on a permanent deal, and a host of young players, whose average age is just under 22:

• Lucas Herrington: 19 (Colorado Rapids, CB)

• Jens Hjerto-Dahl: 20 (Tromso, #10)

• Nobel Mendy: 21 (Rayo Vallecano, CB)

• Lucas Gourna-Douath: 23 (Le Havre/RB Salzburg, #6/#8)

• Elliot Stroud: 24 (Mjällby AIF, LWB/LW)

• Konstantinos Tzolakis: 23 (Olympiakos, GK)

They know that saving the Premier League will be an extremely difficult task after one of the most improbable promotions in recent Championship history, and they are building for the future by signing cheap players with strong potential and resale value.

You can’t really argue against that.

However, you can’t expect them not to struggle.

In the expected points table, which combines their performance on both ends of the pitch and distributes points accordingly, they ranked 20th out of 24 teams.

Twentieth.

More than 30 xPoints behind Coventry and Ipswich.

While Morita and Tzolakis improve the team as a whole, their other defensive signings, Mendy, Herrington, and Gourna-Douath, are all young and need to adapt to Premier League standards (same as Morita and Tzolakis, but they should do it faster).

It is what it is.

🔋 Current status: Target them as much as possible

✅ Viable GW1 picks: None. If you’re convinced that they beat Coventry and are on Bench Boost 2, then probably Oli McBurnie or Joe Gelhardt

❌ Picks to avoid: All of them

📆 Fixture swing to attack: None at the moment

Ipswich

While I think there’s only a teeny-tiny chance Hull will stay up – and they are well aware of that – Ipswich’s management apparently refuse to accept that scenario.

Not only did they manage to keep all the key players, except perhaps Ivan Azón, but they also went big in the transfer market, bringing in:

Emersonn
Julio Enciso
Abdul Fatawu
Florentino Luis
Saša Lukič
Kjell Scherpen
Daizen Maeda
Abdoul Ouattara
Issa Diop
… or making Cedric Kipre one of their own

• The goal is clear: to buy players who can instantly improve the team across all positions. And. Not. Get. Relegated.

That’s a double-edged sword, because you’re betting that the adaptation period for it all to click will be offset by pure player quality, which isn’t always enough.

From that bunch, several can become super influential.

Enciso had an amazing season at Strasbourg. Luis is a high-volume ball-winner every team needs and is already adapted to the Premier League. Fatawu was influential even in a poor Leicester team. Maeda can be productive.

Kjell Scherpen is important because… well, having a great keeper can save you a lot of points across the season. And I could go on, as every player makes sense and fulfils a clear goal in that team.

However, the one I like most is Emersonn (£5.5m).

He’s a 22-year-old Brazilian striker who spent the last season with Ligue 1 side Toulouse, scoring 6 goals and assisting 2 across about 1,700 minutes.

Having grown to 193 cm, he’s strong in the air, which is handy for a team that needs to improve their set-pieces. In the Championship, they ranked 6th for xG and 13th for actual goals scored.

He averaged 2.80 non-penalty shots and 0.42 non-penalty xG, which are close to 75th percentile numbers in the top five leagues. It wasn’t random, as he was above average in other key metrics, such as the quality and volume of receiving in the box and touches inside it.

Of his 52 shots, 25 were with his right foot, 12 with his left, and 15 were headers, which is a nice variety.

He’s still raw and not an FPL pick yet, given the opportunity cost and uncertainty, but I like what I see.

Compared to Hull, their picks are much more popular because of their Gameweek 1 fixture at home against Sunderland, which suits the Bench Boost 1 strategy.

Before the pre-season began, Dara O’Shea (£4.0m) looked like a nice, nailed DEFCON pick, but he’s playing as the right-back under Gary O’Neil.

That makes Issa Diop (£4.0m) likely the best Ipswich DEFCON pick. If you’re more inclined to chase attacking returns, there’s Leif Davis (£4.0m). Florentino (£5.0m) will rack up DEFCONs, but he wouldn’t be my top choice from his price bracket.

🔋 Current status: Useful for Bench Boost 1. Other than that, fixture to target

✅ Viable GW1 picks: Issa Diop and Leif Davis. Dara O’Shea if there’s a hint he starts as centre-back

❌ Picks to avoid: All those new attacking players – it’s either pointless, or their xMins are shady. Or both. There are also better picks than Luis and Scherpen

📆 Fixture swing to attack: None

Leeds

We’re moving up a tier, reader.

Not long ago, I discussed them in depth in one of the articles:

The reason is that I think they could potentially do well this season – they kept the team together, and their transfers make so much sense. To remind you, they’ve signed James Trafford (£5.0m), Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m), and Harry Wilson (£6.5m) so far.

Those players fit them like a glove.

Big, fat Trafford’s gloves that will save all those shots.

Anyway, let’s recap those picks, because there are plenty.

This is how Solio Analytics ranks them for the first 8 gameweeks:

Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m) should prove to be a valuable asset. Firstly, let me say that Leeds’ defence performed pretty well despite goalkeeping issues they most likely won’t have this season.

Last season, Leeds ranked 14th for expected goals conceded, according to the StatsBomb model via FantasyFootballScout, but the gap was tiny – just 6 xGC separated them from the top 5. In some games, they will have pretty nice clean-sheet odds.

The Bosnian centre-back averaged 10.90 defensive contributions per 90 at Sassuolo, mostly thanks to clearances inside and outside the box, with a fair share of aerial ones. I’d also expect him to attack those loose balls when he won’t be heading them. He’ll be hitting the DEFCON threshold consistently.

So, that’s clean-sheet potential + DEFCON potential… and what about attacking prospects? Leeds’ absurd volume of aerials under Farke will suit him in the final third too – last season, he had a 78% win rate in set-piece aerials, placing him in the 95th percentile.

He scored two goals in a team that had the 3rd-worst set-piece expected goals…

Joe Rodon (£4.5m):

Muharemovič’s FPL son. Again, he should do well across all three defensive pillars I mentioned above. One of the very best DEF picks at that price point.

Leeds signed Nico Elvedi today, who is capable of playing in all three centre-back roles in a back 3, but spent the most time in the centre.

I’m not sure he will slot right in, but it’s one thing to monitor closely.

Anton Stach (£6.0m) and Harry Wilson (£6.5m):

For me, Stach is better value than Harry Wilson, who costs £0.5 million more, but I’m not sure I’d want either in my GW1 draft.

As for Wilson:

• He costs £6.5m, which puts him in a crowded category of viable picks

• We need a bit more information on his minutes

• His production from last season is tough to replicate, as he doesn’t find himself in good positions in the box too often. He offsets this with his shot volume, but it’s still too risky – a classic case of wait-and-see

Stach will likely produce steady returns, but has a similar problem to Wilson – too many better or similar picks priced the same or less. I’m leaning towards avoid.

Jaka Bijol (£5.0m), Jayden Bogle (£4.5m), James Justin (£4.5m):

Not bad in isolation, but not better than Muha and Rodon.

Ethan Ampadu (£5.5m):

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Posting a guide on how to use Solio was a popular request from you guys last season, even before I struck a partnership deal with this amazing bunch:

Technically, this makes the article an #ad.

However, I would never recommend anything I don’t use myself, and regular readers know that I used Solio throughout the entire last season before seeing a single penny from it.

💡 Also, I believe that using event data and solvers effectively will improve the quality of your decisions, make the game more enjoyable, and give you a substantial edge on the field.

Alright. Let’s say you’re trying the Solio Analytics tool for the first time.

You log in, go to the decision tree, create a new branch, and click “Optimise” to see what the solver suggests for the basic 5 GW horizon (you can plan up to 19 in the PRO version).

And voilà:

Now you’re sitting in front of the screen, wondering whether this was really it, just like that one night when you were 16, walking Andrea home from dancing school, and… um, never mind.

In fact, it only gets better from now on.

Using tools to make better decisions is normal

Before getting into exactly how solvers can make you a better FPL manager, let me start with the following:

It’s the year 2026, and a vocal group of people still think that optimisation tools:

• make the game a worse experience for all involved

• play the game for you

As for the first point, it vastly exceeds the scope of this article, so just briefly – solvers don’t make the game worse, just different. FPL evolves, whether you like it or not. This evolution is perfectly normal.

In 2009, you could create a Facebook group called “I like sunsets on the beach” and rack up 50,000 followers in two weeks. Playing online poker tournaments around that time was effectively printing money. Not that long ago, you could become a multimillionaire by trading meme coins.

Now, there are teenagers who have become obscenely rich by hopping on the AI trend super early. Adaptation is the skill that moves the needle, both in FPL and in life. It’s up to you whether to spend your time constantly whining about stuff or accept the rules of the game.

Knowing my readers, I know which group you belong to.

In fact, there are two important skills. First, adaptability. Second, high agency, aka making things happen yourself rather than waiting for someone else to do it for you.

Solio and other solvers are just tools.

YOU still play the game.

YOU make decisions.

Once upon a time, managers used pen and paper for this (some still do!). Some prefer Excel files or old-fashioned Windows Notepad. You should see mine from my “professional” real-money DFS career. These text files, in which I analysed players and brainstormed strategies for weighting my teams, were enormous.

Solio is like a hammer. 

A really nice hammer. 

It’s forged from high-quality steel, so the structure is solid and less prone to deforming on impact. It has a nice, durable handle. The weight is perfectly distributed, making the swing more controlled. The grip is better and absorbs vibrations, so you can hammer even more nails without your hand hurting. 

But the hammer doesn’t suddenly start levitating in the air and build a nice doghouse.

Finding your ideal chip strategy

We’re just a few days away from Gameweek 1.

The second batch of chips, introduced last season, created a compelling use case for Solio.

I used it extensively while writing the chip strategy guide:

Part of my screen looked like this:

What you’re looking at now is called a decision tree.

Think of it as the central hub where you can compare and plan your transfer routes to see what best suits your managerial style and aligns with player and team analysis.

Why a decision tree?

Well, because each decision you make in a specific gameweek has an implication for future ones. (duh)

You need to keep answering questions such as:

Would this transfer help me get the most points over a 10-Gameweek horizon (until I wildcard, for example), or would I earn more points in the long term if I save two more FTs and make a more elaborate 3-way move in two weeks?

Also, one injury can derail the whole plan. Think about how often something unexpected happens during the season, and how often you change your approach even within a single Gameweek of FPL.

Fantasy Premier League, like poker, sports betting, investing, or just life, is a game of incomplete information. A skill game with an element of luck, if you want.

Solio uses stochastic programming for FPL, a method that enables robust planning under those various uncertainties.

It makes planning around chip strategies straightforward. The fact is, the “best” chip strategy for the first half of the season doesn’t exist. If you come across someone who tries to tell you the opposite, they’re a fraud. You wouldn’t believe how many things in life you can calculate. This isn’t one of them, though.

There are several ways to be successful or reach your desired destination, be it a mini-league win, top 100k, top 10k, or whatever aspirations you might have.

💡 In Solio, you can put all chip strategies you find viable alongside each other, try to guess which transfers you’ll make along the way based on the current information, and see what suits you best.

Often, you find that many strategies are fairly close in EV (expected value/expected points), but some are safer or more convenient from a meta-game perspective:

your risk tolerance
your willingness to diverge from the template
your psychological comfort with a plan

… et cetera.

Before this season, they introduced the new “Analysis” tab, which helps you analyse the risk your squad carries. You can see your biggest rank threats and whether your team is balanced or overexposed to certain teams.

At the same time, it might not be a mistake but part of your managerial style.

The tool doesn’t tell you what to do but simply gives you more information:

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9 ways Solio could help you become a better manager

Exploring different scenarios can give you a better grasp of several key concepts we regularly discuss here on Data Dribble.

Let’s list some:

1️⃣ The most obvious one.

Optimisation tools help you see what’s possible and get a good feel for your own team and the current FPL landscape.

There’s no substitute for this.

2️⃣ One thing that might surprise you the first time you use it is how quite different transfer routes and strategies can lead to similar EV results.

Some plans may differ by as little as 1 or 2 EV* across the large sample of GWs. Not only does this mean there are more ways to play the game, as I mentioned above, both chip-strategy-wise and picks-wise, but it also makes you realise one crucial thing:

💡 Some decisions are so close that you don’t need to agonise over them, but rather spend the time on:

a) more important decisions
b) improving decision-making in general

Analysing picks is just part of the game.

You also need to consider meta-game factors such as:

• managing risk with effective ownership (covering major threats or countering them in certain spots)

• distinguishing between players’ ceilings and floors – not just total EV, but also the distribution

• valuing free transfers

• valuing more information

• understanding teams’ weaknesses and playing style

• analysing what changes when key players are injured or suspended

• ability to interpret why your players are not scoring points (and vice versa)

• mindset factors such as managing tilt (because when on tilt, you’re making worse decisions)

• improving and evaluating your decision-making frameworks*

• … and much more

*Decision-making frameworks are mental tools that make your decision-making process easier and your decisions more consistent. For example, in GWs 1-19, if two players have the same EV, I will always captain the one with higher effective ownership. Or, if they have the same EV, I will always captain the more expensive player. You get the idea.

It’s not just about hitting the solve button – I don’t think you can ever solve the game. FPL solvers are very different from poker solvers, for example.

3️⃣ It helps you understand that free transfers are the most precious thing you have – seeing the whole route can stop you from making a poor one.

For example, you instantly see that you won’t gain much EV from doing it, whereas saving it might allow you to accumulate much more later by:

• fixing a problem

• attacking the real upside

Extremely valuable.

4️⃣ I already noted this earlier.

It also highlights that even a small change this week can have a huge impact down the line.

The close decision between player A, player B, and player C can become a no-brainer when you see all the future implications.

You pick player A for a slightly higher EV, but you won’t be able to buy player D next week, which can trigger a chain of events that gets you into real trouble. You can prevent getting into those tricky spots long before they happen.

In other words, it teaches you not to think about the move in isolation. You consider 3 players, then you see the whole path, and one option now emerges as much better than the other two.

Great FPL managers will not consider more options than average managers, they will just consider better ones.

- Jonny “FPL Spaceman” Currie

5️⃣ You can react swiftly to things.

Again, injuries and suspensions happen all the time.

Also, players suddenly stopping performing happens all the time.

Players are just people, and I have countless stories from my career in professional football where the loss of “form” has nothing to do with football and everything to do with personal stuff. ❗

6️⃣ It’s a powerful idea generator.

Sometimes you think you’ve explored every possible solution, but the truth is, Solio’s computing power is greater than your brain’s.

You might have missed something. It happens to all of us. Trying to solve with different rules and constraints might reveal something you wouldn’t even consider.

7️⃣ There are also situations where you’re unsure and simply want to test your ideas against solvers.

Alternatively, if you’re advanced enough, you can reverse-engineer why solvers consider it a good solution.

All models have biases, and you can spend time understanding how they think to exploit them.

8️⃣ It helps you understand variance (an element of luck).

It’s a key to playing the game.

The classic decision quality vs the outcome discussion.

You know, I discuss this regularly on Data Dribble – football is a low-scoring game with few shots per match, so luck plays a major role in small sample sizes. You need a proper sample from the current season, or a large sample of historical seasons, for skill to prevail.

A poor decision can have a good outcome.

A great decision can have a poor outcome.

But directly seeing evidence that you’re making an informed, data-supported decision can help you immensely, mentally.

At a football company where I worked as the head of the analytical department, we placed the utmost importance on the chain of events leading up to the shot to improve teams’ decision-making in the transfer market. Shots alone aren’t enough.

9️⃣ Optimisation tools enable planning that fully captures “what-if” thinking in a meaningful way.

The chip strategy in the second half of the season is a prime example of this.

You can develop a concrete strategy for each uncertain scenario and identify those that allow you to maximise both points and flexibility in the future.

It also allows you to think in probabilities, which is extremely important.

See, I just came up with 9 ideas, and I could keep going.

I understand you might feel a bit overwhelmed now, but you don’t have to do everything at once.

That’s the beauty of FPL.

You can play it for 30 minutes a week or spend 30 hours on it. Find what suits you best. Solio allows you to do both. You’re the one who decides how much time and emotional bandwidth the game should take from you.

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If you don’t agree with something, customise it

This one is important to me.

You can add constraints and bring your own beliefs.

A constraint basically means locking or banning certain players, either for a specific Gameweek or for the whole horizon, before hitting “Optimise”. 

If you want to start the season without Erling Haaland and not consider him until Gameweek 7, you can do so easily.

You can also pick a preset based on your risk tolerance, ranging from “I just love differentials” to “I’ll play it safe, and always want to have FTs to solve problems”.

You can do a lot of customisation.

You know that I put a lot of emphasis on detailed match-up analysis during the season, constantly looking for an edge over the field and models.

For me, during the season there are often stretches when I believe a player is a better pick for a substantial run, as those matchups suit him more than the model and markets predict.

Or there is an injury, a suspension, or some other change in the team’s dynamics.

I can then edit:

• predicted minutes

• goals

• assists

• DEFCONs

• team defensive and attacking strengths

• … or penalty share.

Which is amazing.

Sometimes, you want to do just one.

Sometimes you do both: you think City’s attacking strength improves, AND Antoine Semenyo has more favourable match-ups than FDRs suggest, so you adjust City’s goals per game and bump up his share of the team’s goals.

That’s all for today.

Next up – the second part of the complete guide to the 26/27 Premier League season, followed by an article on creating a Gameweek 1 draft.

See you very soon!

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Alright, reader.

We’re only a week away from the new Premier League season, so it’s the right time to start thinking more deeply about our Gameweek 1 drafts.

Following last year’s tradition, I want to explore all 20 teams in detail to see:

• Their strengths and weaknesses

• How appealing their opening fixtures are

• The best picks

• The picks I don’t like and other potential caveats

• What we need to pay attention to

It will be a two-part series, with each club reviewed in alphabetical order.

The purpose of this one is to provide a broader macro perspective. Next week’s content will be more data-heavy.

❗ It’s annoying that there will be another round of friendlies over the weekend, which will provide more information, but it is what it is.

Let’s do this:

Arsenal

Although I’d like to kick off this series with some groundbreaking idea, simple is often right, especially at the start of the new season:

💡 The most obvious place to extract value from Arsenal is defence, despite William Saliba being set to miss the start of the season, with his return date uncertain.

For quite some time, the Gunners have been the best defensive unit in the world, averaging 0.74, 0.92, and 0.75 xG conceded p90 over the previous three seasons.

That’s insane, given how competitive the Premier League has become lately.

Even if we account for some sort of “Saliba penalty” and adjust it so it’s closer to the 2024/2025 value, it’s still enough clean-sheet potential. Not to mention, 33% of Arsenal’s xG came from set-pieces last season.

Their xG per corner was through the roof – that’s the best metric for evaluating their efficiency. As for the xG per corner conceded, it was also among the best.

Unless you’ve lost faith in Arteta’s system. 

I didn’t. Having at least some coverage is a sound decision.

• Cristian Mosquera (£5.5m): Unless they go for another centre-back, he should start regularly, though predicting DEFCONs and attacking threat is tricky. Historically, he hasn’t provided much of either – you’re buying a way into ARS defence, and anything else is just extra. Rumours about Ezri Konsa's arrival are strong, though. Monitor that.

• David Raya (£6m): Similar to Mosquera. For me, it’s a Raya vs Lammens vs Kinský vs Verbruggen decision in GW1, depending on your strategy, of course (some have two of them).

• Gabriel (£8m): Despite being priced at £8 million, he’s in almost 27% of teams. It’s really just a question of structure and your chip strategy. In those no-Haaland or/and no-early-BB teams, he’s fine to own. If he doesn’t fit, I’d suggest covering with other ARS def(s).

Anyway, this Copilot’s overview is quite something…

[Insert “I fear no man. But that thing… it scares me” meme]

• Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White (both £5.5m): Both look super enticing – and both might give you hauls that few will own – until you realise things can go south very quickly. There’s always Pierro Hincapié lurking behind. Timber is “weeks away” from starting, which could mean anything, including that you may need to transfer out White fairly soon.

Bit meh, right?

To continue the list of players whose xMins are questionable:

• Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) and Declan Rice (£7.5m), both recovering from gruelling, World Cup-affected seasons.

• Kai Havertz (£7.5m) and Viktor Gyökeres (£7.5m) – with those two, you likely want to see some dynamics first.

You can add Christos Tzolis (£6.5m), who is coming off a season in which he scored 17 goals and provided 23 assists at Club Brugge.

Even with the heavy Belgian league tax, averaging 3.60 shots, 0.51 xG, and 0.47 xGA per 90 is absurd. However, he has competition for his spot, and Arsenal might still buy a new winger.

As a reminder, the summer transfer window will close after Gameweek 2.

The good news is that, even though things are somewhat disorganised at the moment, a favourable run of fixtures should offset this:

They may be a bit slow out of the blocks and not seem super dominant, but as the season progresses, things will click again.

One reason is the signing of Bruno Guimarães (£7m).

Even though I don’t think he’s an FPL pick in Gameweek 1, largely because of uncertainty (sorry, I’ll say this a lot today), having both Declan Rice and him at their best is scary.

At Newcastle, the Brazilian did a fair share of ball progression, controlled the tempo, and regularly played line-breaking passes from both half-spaces and zone 14 (the central zone close to the box). When you pair him with a runner like Rice… well, let’s say their possession % in the final third and control in the middle of the pitch could be through the roof.

It’s not particularly interesting from a direct FPL perspective, but you want to know your picks will play for a dominant side.

These are default Solio’s xPoints for the opening 6 GWs:

🔋 Current status: Largely wait-and-see, but I’d bet the defence will still work out well. It’s a matter of system

✅ Viable GW1 picks: David Raya, Gabriel, and Cristian Mosquera. Christos Tzolis only if there’s a clear signal

❌ Picks to avoid: All the xMins risks I listed above

📆 Fixture swing to attack: They are fixture-proof

Aston Villa

The Villans will face Brighton and Arsenal in the opening two Gameweeks, which makes it difficult to include their players in Gameweek 1:

• These are two strong defences

• You’d need to hedge AVL picks with players like Verbruggen, Raya, or Mosquera

After that, the fixtures look much better. That GW3+ run includes Hull (a) in Gameweek 3*, but even if you’d want to use some precious transfers on Villa players, you likely won’t see enough over those two opening Gameweeks to be 100% confident you want them long-term.

*You can perhaps Free Hit them in, if that’s your strategy.

Also, Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have all left the team.

In other words, Villa lost two players who were the most influential in build-up and final-third creativity.

Digne also caused some damage in the final third.

You know that I praised the arrivals of Johan Manzambi, Alejandro Garnacho, and João Gomes several times on Data Dribble, because I think all of them might pan out as fantastic moves, but it won’t happen overnight (apart from Gomes – he’ll be just fine right away).

Manzambi is a fantastic player, but he needs time to adapt (and is currently injured).

Everyone coming from the Bundesliga has to, unless their name is Haaland. Plus, we don’t yet know where he’ll play – his most natural role is number 8, but he has the skillset to deputise as a number 10 if needed. 

I believe the general idea should be to play Garnacho on the left wing, Buendia as #10, and Manzambi behind them in the double pivot, but only Unai Emery and a few others know for sure. It’s totally possible that it will be Gomes and Kamara in the double pivot, with Manzambi as number 10.

Also, this assumes that Garnacho will hit the ground running. 

I’m still convinced he could be an excellent FPL pick, but it’s far from certain:

All in all, these new dynamics don’t make Ollie Watkins at £8 million an overly enticing pick ahead of GW1.

As for the others… I don’t see the appeal yet.

🔋 Current status: Fade completely – too much uncertainty and a poor start to the season fixture-wise. But I like their transfer business and will monitor them closely

✅ Viable GW1 picks: None?

❌ Picks to avoid: Probably all of them

📆 Fixture swing to attack: There’s Hull in GW3, but the first proper fixture swing is on Gameweek 11, maybe in Gameweek 9

Brighton

Now we’re talking.

I spent the second half of the previous season praising Brighton’s defence wherever I went. At first, everything was fine, but soon the receptionist at my gym started giving me weird looks.

After Gameweek 19, they:

• conceded just 23 xG, the second-lowest, behind Arsenal

• allowed the fewest shots

• and recorded the 5th-lowest xG per shot conceded – which is great when you have one of the best shot-stoppers in the Premier League in Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m).

Let’s not pretend losing Jan Paul van Hecke isn’t a big thing, but they signed Luka Vuškovič, Pascal Struijk, and Michael Svoboda, players who will help them improve in the air, which was clearly a goal this transfer window.

So, what now?

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We have a 2.5-season sample of Enzo Maresca in England, which gives us a solid overview and some interesting insights.

In the 23/24 season, he won the Championship with Leicester, following a dominant performance – just 2 expected points behind Leeds United.

That spell is obviously the most difficult to assess, because the team’s quality was much greater than most other teams, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jamie Vardy, Ricardo Pereira, and Issahaku Fatawu forming the backbone of the team. 

This allowed for a possession-based style of football with an emphasis on positional attacks. You know, a high defensive line, a lot of passes per sequence, slow progression upfield, but also a lot of goals scored after they win the ball high.

After taking over Chelsea in the 24/25 season, he led them into the Champions League, despite managing the youngest-ever team in a single campaign.

Some interesting numbers:

• 4th in xPoints, on a par with Manchester City

• 4th in open-play xG, but 8th for goals scored from positional attacks

• 2nd-best xG from counters – Liverpool were in a league of their own, but Chelsea ranked similarly to Newcastle, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace

• So many dangerous chances conceded when counter-pressed (4th-worst xG conceded) and meh rest defence*

• 56% possession and 4 passes per possession – only City had more passes

*Rest defence is basically the shape a team maintains while attacking, so that if they lose the ball, it’s already set up to stop a counter. Think of it as the safety net behind the attack.

Those numbers tell a pretty compelling story:

1️⃣ Maresca stuck to his core principles of possession-based, sustained threat, and Chelsea created solid chances from it, though execution was sometimes off. A young squad is certainly one of the reasons, as those players are often inconsistent.

2️⃣ It was the first season, so you can’t teach players (again, very young players) everything at once – the rest defence didn’t work out too well, and building up from the back led to many errors and conceding huge chances.

3️⃣ Maresca also quickly understood that the trend in the Premier League is vertical play, and that you need to be able to pose a threat from fast transitions.

In the following season, Maresca left the team on January 1st, when Chelsea sat 9th for non-penalty xPoints, about 2 points from the fourth team, mainly because they were ranked 13th for StatsBomb xG conceded via FantasyFootballScout.

Ouch.

On closer inspection, they were once again extremely vulnerable after losing the ball while building up in their own third. It was a mix of defensive errors, constant rotation, and lack of discipline.

What Maresca improved was defending fast transitions, where Chelsea looked genuinely good.

They were also great at creating chances from counters, which shows the Italian was really aware of the new trends. Also, only United had more shots from counters than them, despite Maresca keeping faith in keeping possession and playing a lot of passes when on the ball.

Now, using this information, let’s discuss Antoine Semenyo.

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Antoine Semenyo: What’s his role now?

Copilot’s model is bullish on him.

Also, you can see there are many routes to points:

And he’s a hot topic on FPL X this week.

One phrase you hear all the time is that Maresca’s wingers have “high usage”.

In other words, they are central to everything.

“In some games Guardiola wanted me wide, some games he wanted me inside a little bit more, depending on our opposition. Enzo is just about being out wide and when you get the ball, create opportunities. It’s exciting.” - TheAthletic

This Semenyo’s quote is pretty telling.

I wouldn’t place too much weight on all those Semenyo assists in pre-season just because they happened.

They aren’t a signal he’ll replicate that rate during the season.

For a million reasons, pre-season performances aren’t predictive – teams are at different stages of the training process, team quality varies, the positions Semenyo played varied, and there was no Jérémy Doku, which changes a lot. The dynamics will be different. You need to dig deeper to get a clearer picture.

You just need to be aware of the following facts:

1️⃣ Maresca’s teams (as discussed in the previous section) are strong in transitions, which suits Semenyo – a pacey player with experience of Iraola’s intense system
2️⃣ Semenyo WILL be asked to create for others
3️⃣ Jérémy Doku will most likely play on the left
4️⃣ Jérémy Doku will also create a ton

At Leicester, Maresca’s preferred duo was Stephy Mavididi and Issahaku Fatawu, two dribbly boys who averaged more than 5 dribbles per game. Fatawu, in particular, was highly effective when taking on defenders.

Stephy Mavididi (left winger): 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0.17 xA, and 6.7 entries into the box per 90. Most of his threat came from carrying the ball into the box and delivering final passes from there. He was quite a poor crosser, but he contributed with a high volume of cutbacks and many vertical passes from the half-space.

Issahaku Fatawu (right winger): 2.20 shots, 0.16 xG, 0.38 xA, and 7.8 entries into the box. Compared to Mavididi, he’s more of a crosser and passer. In fact, his crosses were among the best in the league. They were highly effective from the wide areas, but those from deeper areas were great too. He played not only amazing deliveries to the back post but also a variety of other passes from cutbacks.

Does this duo remind you of someone?

Maresca right now:

For comparison, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s goal threat was higher, with 1.9 shots and 0.25 xG. However, this doesn’t mean Maresca kills his midfielder’s goal threat entirely.

At Chelsea, Noni Madueke had his best season, in my opinion, as his right winger. It was the season when he did this:

He was super intense back then

3.50 non-penalty shots and 0.40 non-penalty xG (both at the 95th percentile), plus 0.15 xA on top of that.

When it came to shot creation, there were passes inside the box, deep crosses, and cutbacks, with more than 55% of his entries into the box coming from his runs.

Jadon Sancho, on the other flank, offered a combination of passes and runs with very little goal threat. He averaged just 1.20 shots and 0.08 xG (plus 0.16 xA). Again, a huge chunk of his creativity came from passes after arriving inside the box, but he was pretty active in half space too. He almost didn’t cross.

In his last Chelsea season, Maresca played mostly Pedro Neto on the right and Alejandro Garnacho on the left, so he had plenty of running and crossing power at his disposal. Again, both players produced many passes within the box and from the cutback zone, and he utilised their other strengths too, mainly through Neto’s crosses.

From what I’ve seen, Semenyo should have a lot of creative duties and fit that system perfectly. As a by-product, there should be assists.

With an £8.5 million price tag, as an FPL manager, you also want goals from him.

So, will he score goals, or is there no value?

The fact is, no one will tell you. All we can do is assess what has already happened and put it into proper context.

Semenyo can score goals (duh).

And the current Solio Analytics’ predicted points acknowledge this dual threat:

Do you remember the earlier point about Maresca realising that you must execute your transitions, and how, despite favouring positional play, his teams consistently create high-xG chances from counters?

Well, Semenyo’s goal-scoring potential comes from all sorts of transitions, runs on the back post, or dribbling and running into the box against a more settled block.

He should get his shots. Part of this is that Doku is a creator-first winger, not a goal-scorer. He never has been in his career, and we have a sufficient sample size to say he won’t be this season. Not in this team.

Someone needs to accompany Haaland as a goal-scorer, and it will most likely be Semenyo, and potentially Phil Foden, if he gets good minutes, constantly competing (likely) for them with Rayan Cherki. The French also isn’t a 10+ goals-every-season type of player.

I often see people saying Semenyo’s best position is on the left, and that he possibly settling on the other flank is worrying. That’s a form of recency bias, though.

Let’s not forget that in the 23/24 season at Bournemouth, he played the majority of his minutes on the right, with 2.7 shots, 0.20 xG, and great finishing numbers.

A season later, he was simply outstanding there, averaging 3.60 non-penalty shots, 0.37 non-penalty xG, and 0.19 xA. With the previous Premier League season in mind, these are almost unicorn numbers.

Nothing to worry about.

I also checked, and there’s a good variety in how Semenyo scores his goals – yes, he scores a lot from transitions, but he also has many goals against deep blocks.

Should you have Semenyo in your Gameweek 1 draft?

Well, there are so many factors that affect this. It mostly depends on your team’s structure and the chip strategy you’ll play, because fitting in an £8.5m midfielder is quite challenging.

There’s definitely an argument for waiting to see how his final product pans out. But there’s also an argument that if you own Haaland, Semenyo flooding him with passes isn’t the worst idea… (if you’re less hedging, more synergies type of manager)

But let me tell you one thing – I don’t see any reason to pay £1m more for Cole Palmer if you’re considering starting with him. Not until Palmer shows he can be the 23/24 & 24/25 Palmer again.

By the way:

If you want to improve your tactical understanding of the game, or simply want some amazing Manchester City content throughout the season, I recommend you follow my friend Alex:

What about other picks?

There are obviously Erling Haaland, Nico O’Reilly, Joško Gvardiol, Phil Foden, Marc Guéhi or Elliot Anderson.

There’s still so much we don’t know before Gameweek 1, and all you can do is make educated guesses, though I have some idea of what could happen next.

See you very soon!

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The 2026/27 season is drawing closer, reader.

Soon, the 2-part pre-season guide covering all 20 Premier League clubs will hit Data Dribble, along with another cheat-sheet-style article. But before we reach the final pre-season week, when we have the most information, I thought it would be fun to discuss some teams even earlier.

The idea is simple: look at teams whose new signings have made them more attractive FPL targets.

And one that has potential, but it’s better to proceed with caution.

I tried not to list the most obvious ones, like Chelsea, whose management has given Xabi Alonso full licence to build a team tailored to his needs.

Leeds are doing it right

They were one of the two teams to avoid relegation in the previous season.

What was even more impressive was how they did it – they were competitive from the start, and the underlying data made that crystal clear.

Which shouldn’t be too surprising to regular Data Dribble readers:

It seems we’re making this a nice tradition. Last season should have a strong psychological effect on them, as they’ve now experienced this massive confidence boost twice in a row.

First, they clinched promotion after what was one of the most dominant seasons in recent Championship history, beating the second-best team by 24 expected points. Then, right after that, they became a classic example of an average Premier League team.

When I say average, I mean it as a compliment.

Sticking with the xPoints metric (stripped of penalties) that evaluates their performance on both ends of the pitch, they were ranked 10th, with figures similar to those of Newcastle and Aston Villa.

And their approach to the transfer market also oozes confidence.

Hey Siri, Google “Trafford Arsenal triple save”

The thing is, transfers must always serve a purpose, and if you want a good case study on how to address the team’s pain points, it’s right in front of you.

The goalkeeper position was an obvious problem last season. At the start of the Premier League campaign, Lucas Perri replaced Illan Meslier after a successful season at Lyon, where he impressed with an aggressive goalkeeping style and solid shot-stopping. Even though there were some question marks about his claiming, the transfer felt reasonable.

But goalkeepers are a strange breed… (remember our Djordje Petrovič running joke, fam?)

Perri started as the #1 choice, but couldn’t pick up where he left off. Eventually, Farke lost patience with him, and 35-year-old Karl Darlow replaced him in the second half of the season. The Englishman did okay, which was more than enough compared with those previous months.

This summer, Leeds showed true ambition and signed James Trafford (£5.0m).

Which is a nice transition, because in their last Championship season, their players had to deal with him when he pulled off some black magic as a Burnley keeper. For his price, he isn’t too appealing an FPL option, sadly.

But he’s an upgrade and someone who will make Leeds better as a whole.

Tarik Muharemovič: Is the hype real?

Last season, Leeds ranked 14th for expected goals conceded, according to the StatsBomb model via FantasyFootballScout, but the gap was tiny – just 6 xGC separated them from the top 5.

Super competitive league, right?

They parted ways not only with Meslier but also with Pascal Struijk (£5.0m), whom they replaced swiftly with Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m). Again, it makes great sense in terms of squad-building, as Farke’s team DNA is built around aerials in absurd volume.

💡 Only Everton and Crystal Palace engaged in more headers in their defensive third, and they were the second most active in the final third. 

However, success rates weren’t through the roof, so you tackle this by bringing someone who can make aerial clearances in the box AND offer an aerial threat in the other one.

Last season, I wrote several articles about trends in the Premier League and how to exploit them.

Set pieces were the main focus of these articles because the number of goals from those situations skyrocketed.

Muharemovič has a 78% win rate in set-piece aerials, placing him in the 95th percentile, meaning only 5% of centre-backs in the top 5 leagues fared better.

At Sassuolo, a large share of those clearances fell to his teammate (don’t worry, there are a lot of those DEFCON-friendly too), which should help with control, as Leeds had the worst success rate in winning loose-ball duels in their own third last season.

Fortunately, they were solid in the middle of the pitch and fantastic in the final third.

Returning to attacking set pieces, Leeds recorded:

• the 5th-highest set-piece xG last season

• … and scored the 6th most actual goals.

Muharemovič was the most frequent target of corners at Sassuolo, and he recorded 2 goals and 2 assists.

Do you know what’s beautiful?

What we’ve just discussed makes Muharemovič a direct FPL pick, as there’s a scenario in which he meets all three main criteria for a good DEF pick: DEFCON hit rate, goal threat, and clean-sheet potential.

Last season, he averaged 10.90 defensive contributions per 90, mostly thanks to clearances. He also posed a set-piece threat, and Leeds might well produce some eye-catching defensive numbers.

Do you notice how well connected everything is?

For 8 years, I did these breakdowns full-time to identify the best fits in the transfer market, so looking at this genuinely excites me, as I can appreciate the process behind it.

And that’s still not all.

Their third summer transfer is another piece of this beautiful tactical and club-philosophy puzzle. Although it probably depends on your definition of beautiful, especially when you actually watch those PL games, ehm.

Harry Wilson, Anton Stach, and what to do now

Let’s keep discussing set-pieces, just moving a bit further up the pitch.

Anton Stach (£6.0m) took over most set-piece duties last season and did pretty well:

Harry Wilson (£6.5m) was one of Fulham’s most active takers, sharing the role with Saša Lukič (£5.0m) and Alex Iwobi (£5.5m). His arrival means Leeds now have one more quality option, especially on the right side, as Wilson is left-footed.

He also adds a fair amount of open-play creativity and ranks among the league’s best finishers.

Despite that, I would pass on him as an FPL pick in Gameweek 1, because the value isn’t really there:

• He costs £6.5m, which puts him in a crowded category full of viable picks

• We need a bit more information on his minutes

• His production from last season is tough to replicate, as he doesn’t find himself in good positions in the box too often. He offsets this with his shot volume, but it’s still too risky – a classic case of wait-and-see

Anton Stach still seems to provide enough value for £0.5m less.

This is current Solio’s xPoints for the opening 8 gameweeks:

Are there any other viable picks apart from Muharemovič?

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Dominik Szoboszlai’s (£7.0m) FPL ownership is approaching 50%, and I bet that if you read this, you at least considered him. More likely, he was in some of the drafts you saved in the app.

Popular data models that integrate historical performance data, market odds, and even contextual modelling, such as tactical changes, have him ranked among the very best picks.

This is Solio’s top 10 for the eight-gameweek horizon…

… and here’s Copilot’s:

You have surely heard the phrases “he has multiple routes to points” or “you can hold him through the fixture swing, and he’ll just tick along”.

Today, we’ll look at whether these hold up to a quick breakdown and whether we could possibly gain an edge by betting against him.

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❗ There’s some theory to cover first. I don’t recommend skipping it, but if you’re already proficient in game theory and the current Premier League landscape, and you’re here only for drafts and specific chip strategies, keep scrolling until you reach the first draft.

It’s no secret that I’m not exactly a fan of the first set of chips FPL introduced last season.

Football is a low-scoring game with a substantial element of luck, and that directly translates into all sorts of fantasy games. Chips in Gameweeks 1-19 introduce another layer of variance and distract you from the basic principles of pure player, team and fixture analysis. They superficially force action where it’s unnecessary.

But it’s there.

We can do nothing about it but adapt.

To start with, the perfect GWs 1-19 chip strategy doesn’t exist.

It’s unsolvable during pre-season (it’s more about game theory), simply because there’s so much incomplete information and moving parts*. That’s the risk of committing yourself early: it dictates your play while you’re still sharpening your opinions.

*It’s not deployed in isolation, but you a) manipulate the picks, b) it can reflect your playstyle, and c) there are moving parts like transfers, injuries, new information, etc.

Ultimately, FPL is a game of numbers – whether you like it or not – decision-making, and tilt avoidance. It’s about making sound, small decisions week after week that compound. These are more important than assessing which chip strategy is “the best one”, as EV is often much closer than you think.

There are always trade-offs.

Also, arguments like:

• it worked last year

• it worked for someone who did well

… aren’t really helpful. It’s not a signal.

Some people with no-Haaland drafts for the whole season finished top 50k, some top 1M. Some people playing WC4 finished top 1k, some in millions.

Also, it’s a different season from last year. For starters, there’s no £4m starting goalkeeper. The fixtures are different, and the landscape has changed.

Fixture difficulty rating on Solio ranked by predicted goal difference

Speaking of the landscape, it’s critical to understand it properly.

And there are levels of detail to consider:

1️⃣ Helicopter view

There’s so much uncertainty at the moment:

• 10 clubs will start the season with a new manager. It’s something you can partially assess, which is what I’m trying to do with my deep dives – it’s an informed guess based on historical data and the current context. However, it’s still a guess.

• There are 3 promoted sides, each of which is going through the classic Premier League rebuild.

• Several key players had long, gruelling World Cup-affected seasons and will be eased into the new campaign slowly, which may mean late arrivals or managed xMins. That’s a big deal.

• The transfer window will close after Gameweek 2.

• There’s a 3-week international break after Gameweek 5. We’ve never had a break this long. How will managers respond to that? Will they adjust heavily based on what they’ve seen in the first five gameweeks?

• Plus: another IB after Gameweek 10 (just two weeks long).

• Plus: the congested Christmas period begins in Gameweek 12.

2️⃣ Submarine view

This is where you go into more detail:

• Your interpretation of fixture difficulty

• Assessing how transfers affect team strength (and dynamics)

• Assessing newly promoted teams

• When two teams clash, what will the match-up specifics be (positional weaknesses, fast transitions, ability to break low blocks, set-piece attacking/defending)?

• How do tactics influence how midfielders and defenders earn DEFCONs?

There are 4 chips (duh): Bench Boost, Wildcard, Free Hit, and Triple captain.

Most of the pre-season discussion revolves around the Bench Boost, so let’s look at that first.

Early Bench Boost: What’s the appeal?

Early Bench Boost is like Taylor Swift.

On the surface, it’s extremely popular, but a few days ago, you didn’t personally know anyone who was into that. However, if you stop for a minute and think about it, you realise it’s actually quite nice.

It’s a strategy that’s certainly gaining traction among engaged managers this pre-season.

Also, if you pair early BB with an early(ish) wildcard, it allows you to build a bank of free transfers and still utilise some early-season information (though you’ll still miss some).

❗ It’s not as if playing early BB makes things a walk in the park.

It dictates your strategy too, just in a different way.

If you are reluctant to play early WC, you might be using your free transfers, the most precious thing you have in FPL, to start moving funds back to your starting XI.

And if you counter this with an early wildcard, the BB, once again, dictates how you’ll use your strongest chip.

Wildcarding early allows you to redistribute funds back to your starting XI, but how appealing is using a wildcard just to change a structure you dislike at a stage of the season when we still have less-than-ideal information? I’ll let you be the judge. Several approaches can work.

Early BB becomes more appealing if:

• having a bench full of players who can perform in most weeks suits your managerial style

• and your strength is identifying strong match-ups to rotate those players properly

Plus, if you’re mentally prepared to bench a lot of points in some weeks. Try to limit things that can mess with your head when playing FPL.

One other caveat, as I noted earlier, is that you’re building the BB with limited pre-season information.

You ideally want cheap players with favourable fixtures to extract proper value. For BB1, it’s Forest vs Leeds at home or Ipswich vs Sunderland at home, though I’m not 100% sure about quality of those match-ups at this point. For GW2, it’s Coventry vs Hull and Sunderland vs Fulham.

Okay, let’s stop theorising and look at some real-life examples, because there are many ways to manipulate early Bench Boost using different structures and plans.

Bench Boost 1, WC 6-8, FH & TC whenever

Even if you want to keep both Erling Haaland and Bruno Fernandes, you can still build a pretty good draft:

*Note that this article is not a guide to specific picks – its purpose is to show different structures and solutions. We’re not locking ourselves into specific drafts just yet.

I used the Solio Analytics tool throughout this article. You can spend a nice afternoon (or two) going through all the scenarios.

The earlier you wildcard post-IB, the fewer weeks you’re forced to play with a suboptimal bench. The problem is that, at least for me, I’d ideally want to wildcard after the IB and see a few weeks of info after the break (though I’m okay with GW6 too).

The reason is that I wonder whether managers use that long window to fix things they didn’t like during GWs 1-5. Imagine you wildcard, thinking a certain team uses a specific tactical setup and roles, only to find that setup has changed.

Yes, you likely have some FTs saved, but it’s still fixing problems. In an ideal world, you want to position yourself for more EV-hunting, less problem-fixing.

Anyway, it’s pretty doable to use just 2-3 FTs and arrive in the WC8 window with a nice bank of free transfers.

1️⃣ The longer you wait to wildcard, the higher the opportunity cost of the stacked bench (or the cost of making transfers to reduce it).
2️⃣ The sooner you wildcard, the higher the opportunity cost of having less information and potentially forcing transfers later.

If you’re okay with wildcarding in Gameweek 6, executing it should be a piece of cake. For example:

• GW2, GW3: roll

• GW4: Bruno Fernandes –> Cole Palmer, DEF → Gabriel

• GW5: roll

• GW6: wildcard

• GW7: 3 free transfers

Of course, the cheaper the BB1 bench, the longer you can postpone the WC, but there needs to be a balance. I’d focus mainly on having very safe players with good xMins in GW1.

I quite like this strategy if you want to Bench Boost in GW1 – it strikes a nice balance between having some information and not carrying too much money on the bench for too long.

Bench Boost 1, WC4, FH & TC whenever

It could look something like this:

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Alright.

I was going to continue with the newly promoted teams series, but it’s 40 degrees Celsius outside, so I decided it’s time for a leaner, more fun (sorry, Coventry) good-vibes read you can take to the beach.

I’ll discuss different approaches to building a Gameweek 1 squad in the coming weeks, so let’s keep this one super simple:

1️⃣ I’m considering an 8-GW window with a heavier emphasis on the opening 6
2️⃣ No chip plans for that period, apart from wildcarding around GWs 6-8. There’s an international break after Gameweek 5, and I’d ideally like to see a few GWs of info after that – so this is just a raw draft with an emphasis on picks themselves

The process behind the draft can be summed up as:

→ pick “essentials” first
→ add one MID I’m bullish on…
→ complete the defence and make sure not to overspend
→ pick the 3 remaining midfield players (the biggest challenge)

Let’s do it.

Goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský: The way I see it, it’s either betting on Arsenal’s defence being elite again and going for a double-up that includes David Raya (£6.0m), or picking someone from the £4.5 million category to chase value.

It’s the lowest-EV position, and I don’t want to analyse small edges and tiny xP differences for keepers priced at £5.0 and £5.5 million. 

I’m okay with Senne Lammens when, for example, you can’t fit United DEF because you’re bullish on other players. But that’s it.

Current market projections on Solio look like this:

That’s what I mean by small edges.

❓ So, the question is: Antonín Kinský or Bart Verbruggen?

Towards the end of last season, both Spurs and Brighton performed great defensively.

Following De Zerbi’s arrival, Spurs averaged the lowest xG conceded in the league across those 700 minutes (0.79 p90, per StatsBomb data via FantasyFootballScout.com). I mean, they won’t be the best defence next season, but they should be solid, and the fixtures look good.

You might still remember I was raving about Brighton’s defence in the second half of last season – since Gameweek 19, only Arsenal performed better in xGC, and they had the 5th-lowest xG per shot conceded, which is great for saves, especially for an amazing shot-stopper like Verbruggen.

But I’m picking Kinský because I’d like to own a specific Brighton defender and to spread the risk. More on that later…

Essentials

I don’t want to use that horrid E-word too often, but I’m making an exception this time.

Cristian Mosquera (£5.5m): Losing William Saliba will affect the defence to some extent, but it’s impossible to quantify the exact impact because the context changes and you can’t draw a direct comparison with the previous season. 

I believe Arsenal’s defence will continue to rank among the best in the league, and given that run of fixtures, paying £5.5 million for a piece of that is a no-brainer. 

When Saliba’s back, you’ll have enough information to solve that problem sensibly.

💡 Last season, Arsenal conceded about 0.75 xG and actual goals per 90, despite some injury problems. Solio has it by default at 0.92 goals conceded, which seems about right.

Still, they are comfortably at the top of the defensive table.

Check below:

Erling Haaland (£15.5m) & Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m): 

As I’ve discussed in my article on pricing and value, this season’s pricing can be summarised in 3 points:

• make the previous campaign’s top performers more expensive relative to the field

• increase prices for top DEFCON performers

• keep the rest of the players affordable

Owning both Haaland and Bruno doesn’t compromise squad-building in my opinion, and you’re getting two reliable captaincy options to shield all gameweeks.

Also, you cover their EO, as they are now selected in 75% and 49% of teams, respectively.

Now the one that might not be everyone’s cup of tea.

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I’m delighted to announce that Data Dribble has partnered with Solio Analytics for the 2026/27 season! 🔥

Solio is a group of really smart blokes developing an optimisation and planning tool for FPL.

I’ve been following their journey for a while, so when they launched, I immediately joined their beta-testing group and have been hooked ever since.

Solio lets you bring your own football and data understanding to decision-making – if you don’t agree with something, you can simply customise it. No hand-holding.

💡 And because putting proper context into data is a philosophy Data Dribble is built around, it only made sense to join forces.

From now on, I’ll be:

• integrating Solio’s curated FPL data and projections into my content to deliver the most value possible

• distributing 30 one-month Solio Pro codes among my annual premium subscribers* (3 per month)

*both new and existing

During pre-season, I’ll also publish a full breakdown of how I use Solio in my process, along with details on how the codes will be distributed.

If you haven’t had a chance, you can explore the free version of the Solio tool to test the core features over a 5-GW horizon with unlimited solves.

Solio Pro then unlocks full customisation, along with a set of OPTA data or a chip strategy solver for a 19-GW projection.

If you’re a nerd like me, you’re gonna love it.

Try Solio

Every signup via my link earns Data Dribble a commission – one more way you can support what we’re building here and my vision for offering even more perks to our premium community.

Because, reader, we’re not done…

Expect another announcement very soon!

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After a relatively quiet week, transfer activity is ramping up.

Chelsea have officially announced Maxence Lacroix. Mamadou Sangaré is close to joining Brentford. And Fulham are reportedly buying Gonzalo García from Real Madrid.

There are also endless rumours about Bradley Barcola, Vinicius Jr., or Savinho, and it feels like another transfer 💣 is close.

But before they all blow up, let’s look at some other moves.

Hidemasa Morita, Hull’s newest addition

Look, it’s not been easy for Hull City and their fans this pre-season.

It’s one of the least likely promotions to the Premier League in recent times, largely because of how poorly their defence performed in the Championship last campaign.

Clearly, they need to be smart in the transfer market, and, with all due respect, starting the window by signing Jack Butland, Matt Targett, and Óscar Zambrano, number six from Slovenian side Maribor, felt underwhelming.

And although I contributed to that current public mood with my earlier deep dive, which bluntly stated that you should target Hull as often as you can in FPL, today I feel like giving them some credit.

Their latest signing, Hidemasa Morita (£5.0m), will hardly become an obvious FPL pick to target. But he’s certainly a feel-good player that managers and fans love.

And not just because that name sounds like a badass Japanese actor who will feature in Shōgun Season 2.

Despite being 31 and coming from Portugal, which is always tricky when it comes to how quickly a player can adapt to the demands of the Premier League, he fits the mould of a workhorse who makes the team better as a whole.

At Sporting, he played alongside Morten Hjulmand in the double pivot and was the more advanced of the pair. Even so, he contributed a lot defensively.

What stood out was how happy he was to step out – he ranked in the 90th+ percentile for tackles attempted and had an above-average success rate, making him a prolific tackler given that massive volume. He also has elite positional awareness, blocking and intercepting passes left, right and centre.

As a result, he won plenty of balls in the areas that mattered most, stopping many dangerous attacks before they could happen.

He actually had pretty strong DEFCON numbers, averaging 11 defensive contributions per 90 minutes. You would expect him to do a fair share of defending at Hull.

What makes him extremely valuable is the progression and creativity he offers. With him, it’s mainly about passing. He ranked in the 90th+ percentile for an advanced goal probability added model measuring how his distribution increased the team’s likelihood of scoring.

Not only was Morita super-involved in the build-up, playing all sorts of forward, progressive, and line-breaking passes, but he also averaged 0.15 open-play xA, which is a lot for his role. During the season, he played plenty of fantastic through balls from deep and in the final third, mostly centrally or from the left half-space.

Certainly useful for a counter-attacking team like Hull.

Now, his numbers are inflated by playing for a dominant side, which won’t be the case at Hull, plus he’s not a standout runner and not strong physically, but he’s an interesting profile and someone who came to make an immediate impact.

It doesn’t change anything in terms of FPL, but it’s perhaps a sign that Hull will try their hardest to be competitive and tackle their biggest issues. Or tackle out of it – there are also rumours they’re close to signing Florentino Luís, a destroyer-type number 6.

Hayden Hackney: A missing piece?

Another one that makes you think “why this person runs the FPL website when he doesn’t discuss any proper FPL picks in that article?”

Well, if you’re a regular Data Dribble reader, you know that context is everything (or at least a lot).

And Hayden Hackney’s (£5.5m) arrival could, potentially, have a significant impact on popular picks – Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£6.5m) and James Garner (£6.0m).

We’re talking about one of the most influential Championship players last season (he’s literally the 2025-26 Championship player of the season), and someone who will be hard for Middlesbrough to replace. 

So, what does he do?

Well, kinda everything.

He’s a 24-year-old English box-to-box midfielder who recorded 5 goals and 7 assists last season, which is roughly 3 goals and 4 assists in PL terms. Who knows. But the final product is just an extra for him.

Simply put:

• he gets the ball into the final third

• he can do it in several ways

• he can do it often

Bingo.

He can pass there, cross there, carry the ball there, dribble into the space – all at a high level. In goal probability added/VAEP metrics, he was in the 95th+ percentile for both running and passing. His dribble volume is in the 90th percentile with a solid success rate.

Hackney was also on about 40% of Middlesbrough set-pieces, which inflated volume-based metrics like passes that led directly to a shot, and also xG assisted, which rose to 0.19 p90 – another amazing number for number 8.

But if you dig deeper, you find that just 33% of key passes and 20% of xA are from set-pieces.

That’s useful to know, because at Everton he’ll likely get a minimum with KDH and Garner in the team.

His passing range is excellent.

Thanks to his running and dribbling, he can get into the box and distribute from the most dangerous areas.

Thanks to his creativity, he can play diagonal and vertical passes from the half-spaces, both close to the box and from deep. Crossing is rather average, but does it really matter?

One last thing - he averaged about 8.80 defensive contributions per 90, which is not too shabby. It’s about 0.4 fewer than Gueye and Ndiaye averaged last season. Note that Middlesbrough were the most possession-based team in the Championship. He’ll hit the threshold sometimes…

If you believe he’s a regular starter (he should be) and bump up his minutes in Solio’s market-based projection model, he becomes one of the best £5.5 million MID picks:

And not too far from KDH’s xPoints, despite being £1 million less.

Still, I’d like to see that dynamic first and would rather pay £0.5m more for Garner in Gameweek 1 (if he’s fit by then), or wait to see whether Hackney a) gets back to match fitness quickly after the injury, and produces points and b) whether KDH’s goal threat will improve with him behind.

Óscar Mingueza: Ready to bomb the box

The transfer that goes against the current trend of runners, physical & aerial monsters and players who can do a bit of everything.

Mingueza isn’t particularly good at defending. He was slightly below average (average at best) in the most vital metrics at Celta Vigo. Also, his carrying and dribbling are a bit meh – not a total disaster, but not something you’d buy him for.

But let me tell you, that man likes to kick the ball into the box.

And the good news is he creates plenty of chances that way:

From the list above, the open-play xA is the most vital metric for FPL managers, alongside deep completions (passes completed within a 20-metre radius of the goal) and deep shots assisted.

His trademark pass from the byline into the cutback zone is disgustingly accurate, creating dangerous chances. I can vividly picture Ismaïla Sarr on the end of them.

At Celta, he also often roamed in both half-spaces, spraying those throughballs into the box.

Now, he can play on both the right and the left, but Pierre Sage has Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell available. Mitchell is one of the best defensive wing-backs in the league, and Muñoz… well, we all know Muñoz. So, his expected minutes are uncertain, and he’s more of a squad player right now.

Well, at least you know he exists, and that if one of his teammates gets injured, the wing-backs’ chance-creation rate will be absurd.

FPL is a game of information, after all.

That’s all for today.

See you very soon!

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I’m happy to announce that Data Dribble has partnered with FPL Copilot for the 2026/27 season! 🤖

Spiros, the brains behind the project, spent the whole off-season rebuilding his planning and analytical tool, which 33,000 FPL managers used last campaign, and introduced a sharper Copilot, an updated model, and some new cool features.

One thing that surprised me about running Data Dribble is how many of you guys are not playing for overall rank, but to win your mini-leagues.

Copilot can help you generate some ideas – the mini-league section not only gives you a lot of useful information, but allows you to run special solves solely for your mini-league.

Don’t worry, I won’t tell your mates. 

Another feature I like is the expected points breakdown, which shows exactly how your players are scoring points.

Pretty useful for analysing players:

What are the perks for our community?

• I’ll integrate Copilot FPL data and projections into my content to deliver the most value possible

• Every annual premium subscriber, whether existing or new, will receive a free 30-day code to use whenever you like – you can redeem it to perfect your Gameweek 1 draft, navigate the hectic Christmas period, or use it towards the end of the season to clinch that mini-league win.

❗ I will send the codes to you early next week by email.

Try FPL Copilot

If you consider giving Copilot a go, every sign-up via my link anywhere on this website earns Data Dribble a commission – it’s another way to support the project and my vision of offering a bundle of perks to our premium community.

Thank you!

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Alright, reader.

After last week’s deep dive into what Andoni Iraola will bring to Liverpool and what his arrival means for our FPL endeavours, it only makes sense to follow up with Bournemouth, who are preparing for the era under Marco Rose.

The German’s managerial career can be split into two parts.

The great one.

And the other… well, you’ll see in a bit.

I won’t discuss his earlier years too much, but so you know the lore, here are a few bullet points:

• Rose put himself on the football map as Salzburg manager during the 17/18 and 18/19 seasons, when he won everything in Austria…

• … and made a deep run in the Europa League, beating Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund, and Lazio before losing to Olympique Marseille in the semi-finals

• He then spent two seasons at Borussia Mönchengladbach, guiding them into the Champions League. After finishing 2nd in a group with Real Madrid, Inter Milan, and Shakhtar Donetsk, the draw wasn’t meant to get any easier – they played Manchester City in the first knockout round and were eliminated

• After that, he managed Borussia Dortmund. The spell lasted exactly one season, and they finished 2nd in the Bundesliga (the Haaland & Bellingham era)

The following season, Rose became head coach at RB Leipzig, where the fun began…

Marco Rose at his managerial peak

Alright, spoiler alert.

RB were very competitive during Rose’s debut season:

And let me tell you, Rose making life tough for both Bayern and Borussia was simply because his team played fantastic football.

With fantastic players.

When you look at the starting eleven that beat Bayern in the penultimate Bundesliga gameweek, it included Joško Gvardiol, Dominik Szoboszlai, Dani Olmo, Konrad Laimer, Christopher Nkunku, and Amadour Haïdara.

Over those 29 league games with Rose at the helm, RB were tied for the best expected points (xPoints) with Bayern, largely due to dominant defensive performances: they conceded both the fewest non-penalty xG and the fewest actual non-penalty goals.

Their core principle was to congest the pitch centrally, and to keep short distances between players to recover the ball quickly, and make it extremely difficult for opponents to progress through those valuable areas.

💡 Another key part of this was intense counter-pressing: in other words, Leipzig’s high defensive line was instructed to win the ball back immediately after losing it high up the pitch.

The purpose of the press was to force the ball wide and then apply pressure on the receiving player. It was a nightmare not only for opponents who tried to attack slowly, but also for counter-attacking sides, because even if they bypassed the initial press, other Red Bull players were close enough to stop the break.

As a result, Leipzig conceded very few dangerous shots.

1️⃣ Against slow attacks, their defence was on a par with Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen.

2️⃣ They conceded just two goals from counters, the fewest that season.

3️⃣ And when someone tried to re-press them, it was a battle they couldn’t win, as they simply couldn’t get good chances in the box even when they won the ball – Leipzig conceded just one goal from counter-press.

Hold that thought, because we’ll come back to it.

In the final third of the pitch, Red Bull’s system was built on direct forward play and fast transitions within a narrow, attacking 4-2-2-2 formation.

Whereas both Bayern and Borussia scored 40+ goals over the season from slow, positional attacks, RB scored only about half that number, but breaks and gegen-pressing made up for it: no other team produced as many dangerous shots from such situations.

Their 0.15 xG per shot from breaks is clear evidence of that.

However, the decline began as early as the 23/24 season.

The downfall

You could put some of the blame on the loss of several key players – the lure of the Premier League and Bayern is hard to resist, so RB said goodbye to Gvardiol, Szoboszlai, Nkunku and Laimer.

At the same time, Luis Openda and Benjamin Šeško combined for a whopping 38 goals, and Xavi Simons had one of the best seasons of his career.

Still, something was brewing beneath the surface, and it was meant to eventually blow.

It was the Bundesliga campaign that saw Xabi Alonso pull off a title-winning unbeaten run, and Marco Rose (and Red Bull) suddenly stopped being among the hottest topics.

There were still things to like about the team: their defence remained firmly among the best, and those fast transitions still worked well, with only Leverkusen scoring more goals from them.

At the same time, they dropped to 4th in xPoints, far from both Bayern and Bayer.

They suddenly looked much less dominant.

They played with the ball less, became even more direct in possession, the pressing intensity dropped significantly, and the counter-press became less effective, which was probably the worst indicator of all. The share of their possessions when they won the ball high up the pitch shortly after losing it dropped by almost 20%.

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Alright, reader.

FPL is fully back, so we can finally compare players’ values, make our drafts, and do all the fun stuff that comes with it.

The theme of the upcoming season’s pricing is pretty clear and can be summed up in three points:

1️⃣ Bump up the prices of the previous campaign’s top performers: Erling Haaland (£15.5m), Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m), and Gabriel (£8.0m)

2️⃣ Increase the prices of all the best DEFCON defenders

3️⃣ Make the rest of the players relatively affordable

Anyway, this subsequently creates a certain dynamic:

→ You can exploit DEFs by evaluating discrepancies in the number of defensive contributions they will earn compared with last season, or in how players new to the Premier League will perform

→ Pricing makes it very difficult to own all three players mentioned above without compromising your structure and flexibility too much. To get a better feel for it, I tried to create a random Haaland+Bruno+Gabriel draft:

It’s not that bad, but it certainly lacks balance and firepower.

You’d need to nail pretty much all your picks to have a chance of it performing well.

→ There’s plenty of wiggle room to find underpriced “value picks”, which is always nice and is an essence of FPL, at least for me. It’s also extremely important to be early on those players before they become bandwagons – the template, especially in defence, might emerge rather quickly.

As always, the midfield is a good place to look for them during the season, as dynamics can shift quickly (role changes, injuries, etc.).

I didn’t notice any controversial positional decision, like last year’s Jarrod Bowen being added to the game as FWD.

Anyway, today I plan to review all positions and highlight prices that have caught my interest for various reasons. As we gather more information on transfers and pre-season minutes, we will refine our GW1 pool of viable picks.

What looks good now might not be viable in Gameweek 1.

Note: Let’s not overemphasise fixtures at this stage. It doesn’t make much sense to evaluate them with so many transfers still to be announced across the Premier League. I will instead focus on each player’s value relative to others.

Note 2: Many players featured in the late stages of the World Cup, and their involvement in Gameweek 1 is questionable. It could even be 20 or so players.

We don’t know yet.

Defenders: Did they strike a balance?

Apart from Gabriel, who averaged 6.9 points per start last season, defenders are capped at £6.5 million, compared with £6 million last season.

• There are three of them: Jurriën Timber, Virgil van Dijk, and Nico O’Reilly.

I don’t have a problem with that, because each of them can realistically become the highest-scoring defender if the stars align.

At the same time, you need strong conviction that it will happen, and because there’s a fair share of uncertainty about Arsenal (Saliba out, players late from the WC), Liverpool (new manager, likely new starting CB), and Manchester City (new manager, new dynamics players-wise), I don’t see many managers starting the season with them.

• The £6 million category includes: William Saliba, Maxence Lacroix, James Tarkowski, Marc Guéhi, Matheus Nunes, Marcos Senesi.

This one is a mixed bag.

William Saliba is injured and doesn’t provide much attacking threat. Maxence Lacroix will play in Xabi Alonso’s system, which is focused on control in all phases of the play*. And Senesi might not even start regularly and is one of those who spent ages in the World Cup.

Manchester City duo make sense.

James Tarkowski too, given his typology and how overpowered DEFCONs are.

*However, if it’s really a back 3, Lacroix will be CCB. That means he’ll do a fair share of active defending and is amazing in the air, so I wouldn’t rule him out just yet. But yeah, his defcons will more likely go down.

The £5.5m bracket is much more bloated:

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Whether you like it or not, you will come across plenty of DEFCON content this season, and the Data Dribble is no exception. If you read my series on how new coaches will change the way clubs play this season, you already know.

But man, the thing I love analysing most is goals and where they could come from.

And I see them in both Morgan Rogers (£7.5m) and Alejandro Garnacho (£6.0m), provided certain conditions are met…

For Morgan Rogers, the left is the right place to be

Morgan Rogers was quite a frustrating pick last season.

It seemed he either a) ran super hot or b) did absolutely nothing.

Nothing in between.

The key with him was to pay attention to his role within the team and how it affected his performance. It was a great example of how tracking changes in the team’s dynamics and positional trends could help you predict players’ outputs.

Now, I have some bad news for you.

Clubs don’t buy players to help you do well in the Fantasy Premier League.

I wish they did, but they don’t.

Chelsea bought Rogers for his receiving, the threat he creates with his passes in both the build-up and the final third, and because his first instinct is to play the ball forward and worry about the rest later.

The fact that he does so in the final third is important for FPL, as it creates assists – Rogers recorded 16 of them in the last two seasons, not including fantasy assists.

But you also want goals. There were 10 last campaign (8 the season before that), so the question is whether it’s repeatable.

When you look at the shot map, doubts start to creep in:

Those three goals outside the box, xG overperformance, and subpar centrality… are not good signs.

But when you look at the shot map from the previous season, dots start to connect:

Some more goals from distance, this time from relatively few attempts, and another xG overperformance.

Across about 8,000 Premier League minutes, Rogers has been a great finisher, with about 40% xG overperformance, though this should probably be adjusted because he didn’t exactly shine during 3,000 minutes in the Championship.

Also, 8,000 is a solid sample size, though not massive, so some luck is still involved. All in all, he can strike the ball…

And there’s one position where Rogers poses a much greater goal threat:

On the left (2,100 minutes, data per 90 minutes):

• 2.20 non-penalty shots

• 0.25 non-penalty xG

• 0.40 non-penalty goals

• 0.23 xG assisted

Centrally (3,600):

• 1.80 non-penalty shots

• 0.15 non-penalty xG

• 0.17 non-penalty goals

• 0.18 xG assisted

On the right (1,100)

• 0.80 non-penalty shots

• 0.10 non-penalty xG

• 0 non-penalty goals

• 0.20 xG assisted

He likes to cut in and is right-footed, so it’s not rocket science to see where that xG overperformance comes from. But it’s not only that he can score bangers from his favourite move – his attempts are higher quality and more frequent, and he plays better final passes there.

❗ Also, it’s not just about the final product.

Playing on the left, Rogers posts much better results in advanced VAEP/goal-probability-added metrics that track his on-ball actions and measure how they increase the team’s chance of scoring. That goes for his passing, carrying, and dribbling. 

While he’s in the 80th percentile for most of these metrics when on the left, he drops below average centrally, which is a big deal if you ask me.

Based on how Chelsea’s squad looks, I think you can realistically expect Xabi Alonso to play Rogers in his most natural position, either as a left winger or a left #10, depending on the formation. Of course, there might be a 4-2-3-1 with Rogers central, but I hope that’s not the case.

Rogers in his natural habitat would be great news for FPL managers, because he’s simply a different beast there. Having as many midfielders as possible who can both score and assist is good for the game.

What’s less good news is that Rogers is priced at £7.5 million, which is probably £0.5 – £1 million lower than it should be if he’s LW. I’m writing this only half an hour after the FPL launched for the new season, so I need to let it sink in. 

My annual “first impression on pricing and value” article will be out tomorrow.

In the meantime, you can check my Xabi Alonso & Chelsea deep dive I wrote this pre-season. It includes a free section:

Alejandro Garnacho + Unai Emery: What if this works?

Now, this won’t be a popular topic.

But I still think there’s so much potential, goals, and assists in Alejandro Garnacho (£6m).

It’s hard to articulate what needs to happen if you’re not inside the club and don’t know the player personally. But let’s assume that, with Garnacho, it’s about playing under a coach you respect, who is straightforward with you, builds your confidence, and trusts you.

I saw it firsthand during my career in professional football – with some players, it’s difficult to build that trust, but once it’s there...

Last season, Aston Villa played Emi Buendia on the left, a very different player.

He’s not someone who’d attack the box with his runs, get into good shooting positions, or be a great runner in terms of creating a threat in the final third.

In some of his previous Villa seasons, the Argentinian proved to be great 1v1, had great vision for the final pass, and generally won a lot of balls, but last season was probably his worst.

Garnacho was between 17 and 20 years old during his Manchester United 6,000-minute spell and still:

1️⃣ ranked in the 95th+ percentile for threat generated by runs
2️⃣ averaged 3.10 non-penalty shots with 0.30 non-penalty xG (both 90th+ percentile)
3️⃣ … and added about average xG assisted

The finishing wasn’t his strong suit, to say the least, but it was okay given the sheer volume of good chances he had. Poor finishers can still have great careers. Just look at Gabriel Jesus.

He simply carries the ball into the box and then shoots close to goal. And that’s what you want to see from a player as an FPL manager, really.

What’s crazy is that at Chelsea, it was a totally different Garnacho. Although he kept his carrying threat, he also produced some crazy passing numbers:

He recorded 4 assists in about 1,400 minutes, but it could have been much more. Looking at clips, most of his creativity came from distributing inside the box, but what might surprise you is that he also took quite a few amazing crosses from deep, which was unexpected, to say the least.

Unlock that energy in him, unlock all his creative and goal-scoring potential, and you have a player who can repay you with decisive moments.

❗ The only caveat is that this is a season-long loan deal with an obligation to buy if “certain criteria are met”, with those criteria likely to be a set number of starts. That makes this an even firmer wait-and-see in FPL.

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That’s all for today.

See you soon!

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Liverpool are fresh off a weird season marked by a series of bizarre events, injuries, a fair share of bad luck, and some poor performances that ultimately led to the sacking of Arne Slot, who departed just one season after the title-winning campaign.

The general consensus among those who tried to pinpoint exactly what went wrong with the Reds is that they were too passive and too scared out of possession.

Although this was partly true, it’s also been blown out of proportion, as the data don’t exactly support that claim. They were still pretty intense and created a lot of good shots from fast transitions and high turnovers – yes, it wasn’t an elite result, but they were strong in those areas.

I guess it wasn’t enough, and the fact that performance can be heavily affected by things that are simply out of your control wasn’t too sexy a storyline.

Anyway, Liverpool will now get a fair share of intensity from Andoni Iraola. That’s for sure.

Intensity, pressing, and re-pressing are likely the three most frequently mentioned words when discussing his philosophy.

Later in the article, we’ll discuss a lot of specific data, but to set the tone, let’s look at the metric that perfectly illustrates Iraola’s approach.

You might come across different versions of it online, but this one is from The Athletic and shows how many shots Bournemouth produced shortly after winning the ball in the final third of the pitch since the 2023/2024 season:

But first things first – let’s talk about defence…

Iraola can control his chaos

Last season showed that Iraola isn’t just some madman who demands his players be relentless all the time, but can adapt to new orders.

I do feel this tends to be overlooked.

Bournemouth entered the previous season without Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez, and Illia Zabarnyi. Kerkez and Zabarnyi were two of the three most-used players in the 24/25 season, and if you sum the minutes of all three, it’s close to 10,000.

Despite heavy personnel changes, a commitment to an attacking philosophy, or Djordje Petrovič going through a poor run of shot-stopping for a substantial part of the season – before returning to his Strasbourg level towards the end – they produced some intriguing defensive numbers.

While they played a high defensive line (on a par with Liverpool) and applied the most intense press in the Premier League in 24/25, there was an evident effort to stabilise and allow the team to adapt to new players.

They dropped to a mid-block last season and, at times, stepped off the gas in pressing intensity, while still remaining among the fiercest teams in the final third.

Even though Iraola’s approach is to create chaos, it’s certainly not chaos without rules.

Along with a lower defensive block than usual, there was a compact structure that allowed them to win loose balls often and avoid being too exposed when losing the ball in their defensive half, a common flaw among many attacking teams.

And it showed in the data:

• They had the lowest xG conceded per game (0.40) and xG conceded per shot (0.09) when defending in a low block against slow, sustained attacks

• They were especially sound in home games, where they conceded just 4 non-penalty goals throughout the season with avg. 0.80 xG conceded, similar to Arsenal

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It’s crazy to think this might or might not be the reason Hull were promoted to the Premier League:

Long story short, in case you missed it:

1️⃣ Southampton won the Championship play-off semi-final against Middlesbrough and were set to play Hull in the final at Wembley…
2️⃣ … only to be kicked out of the final by the EFL after admitting to spying on training sessions, including Boro’s own
3️⃣ Hull ended up facing a replacement opponent at the last minute
4️⃣ The Tigers sealed a highly improbable return to the Premier League by beating Middlesbrough 1-0 after Oli McBurnie’s 95th-minute strike

A season earlier, Hull avoided relegation to League One on goal difference.

Football.

How well did Hull perform in the Championship last season?

That’s another crazy part of the story.

You must be thinking: hmm, this line suggests that they probably did poorly in defence but offset that with a potent attack. Or they had a great defence and a great goalkeeper, so if they buy the right offensive players, they will be competitive.

Well…

In the expected points table – which combines their performance on both ends of the pitch and distributes points accordingly – they ranked 20th out of 24 teams.

Twentieth.

More than 30 xPoints behind the promoted teams Coventry and Ipswich.

The actual table looked like this, though:

They were bang average in terms of the volume and quality of chances created, but ranked near the bottom in terms of conceding them. In fact, only Sheffield Wednesday, who ended up relegated, fared worse in xG conceded.

They allowed 76 non-penalty xG and 61 actual non-penalty goals, the 5th-most (tied with Wrexham). Only Watford, Leicester, QPR and Sheffield Wednesday conceded more goals.

Some might say it’s evidence that those expected metrics don’t work, but that’s not the right way to look at it – it’s simply evidence that extreme outliers exist (it’s just statistics, really), and if the same thing repeats in the Premier League, they will most likely be punished.

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If you want to understand how elite clubs approach squad-building and perhaps do a little transfer-market reverse engineering, simply follow the rule of the three B’s:

🧠 Just look at how Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth are recruiting.

Those clubs have already announced a few moves worth paying attention to, as they could become an important part of our upcoming FPL season.

Let’s see them:

Luka Vuškovič and Brighton going to war in the air

As a Spurs fan, I’m a bit worried.

As an FPL manager, I feel the same.

New Brighton’s centre-back could soon become a painfully obvious template DEF pick, performing strongly across all the main routes to points.

Last season, at Hamburger SV (on loan from Tottenham Hotspur), he did this at just 18:

A high volume of clearances is usually the main driver behind DEFs hitting the 10 CBIT threshold.

In Vuškovič’s case, it’s not exactly rocket science why he’s getting them – a big part of his game is aerial dominance and active engagement in those duels, which feed the clearances he makes inside the box.

Dominance is the right word here, as he’s ranked in the 99th percentile for both the volume of aerial duels won and the success rate of those duels. And if you want to split them into defensive and offensive duels, it’s basically the same.

Vuškovič averaged 1.20 shots, 0.13 non-penalty xG, and 0.18 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, which means he produced a hefty 32 attempts during the 2,400 minutes he played.

And he scored 6 goals.

Last season, Brighton had only an average success rate in defensive aerial duels, so they strengthened that area by bringing in not only Vuškovič but also Pascal Struijk and Michael Svoboda, who are pretty capable in the air.

Now, the question is how quickly Vuškovič will adjust not only to Premier League standards but also to Brighton’s demands, as he spent the last season primarily as a CCB in a back three, whereas the Seagulls play a back four. However, Brighton clearly wouldn’t splash out £46 million if they weren’t confident it would be a rather swift process. Plus, their track record in player development is generally impressive.

Speaking of DEFCON defenders, Leeds announced the signing of Tarik Muharemovič from Serie A side Sassuolo, who could very well carry on the levels set by Jaka Bijol, Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk last season.

Another one to watch is Brentford’s Jannik Schuster, who is coming from Salzburg. He’s another CB with a high volume of aerial clearances – he averaged 10.50 defensive contributions per 90 even though he played for a dominant side.

❗ He’s facing stiff competition, and the qualitative jump from the Austrian Bundesliga is simply too great, so he most likely won’t slot right in, but it may come in handy to be aware he exists.

Jaidon Anthony hasn’t fully shown his potential in the Premier League yet

Coming up next, Brentford.

Looking at their closed deals so far, the best is probably yet to come.

Jannik Schuster is a long-term prospect.

Callum Wilson is there to give Igor Thiago a bit of a breather after a super-demanding season and to provide some mentorship.

Jaidon Anthony’s (26) signing should have the biggest immediate impact of the three – Brentford’s attacking options were limited to just Thiago, Dango, and Schade last season, so this is a logical step. He’s someone who could realistically get a fair share of minutes on the left wing next season, or even play a more central role behind the striker.

Scoring 8 top-flight goals for relegated Burnley is no small feat, and judging from his Championship performances, he definitely hasn’t shown his full potential yet in the Premier League.

Burnley earned promotion in the 24/25 Championship season largely thanks to a solid defence and James Trafford, but they were hardly dazzling going forward, ranking 8th in expected goals, 10th in shots, and 9th in xG per shot.

Yet Anthony shone in advanced models that evaluate all on-ball actions and the extent to which they increase a team’s chances of scoring a goal. His technical ability also translated well into the final product – 2 non-penalty shots, 0.20 non-penalty xG, and 0.25 xG assisted led to 8 goals and 8 assists.

What caught my attention was the number of cutback passes he made that season, how often he entered the box, and how many of those actions led directly to shots. He also delivered many great crosses from the wide, which is a nice blend of skills and could improve his final product, as he’ll now play for the more dominant side.

By the way, the deal was reportedly worth just £17 million.

❗ As for the FPL, his arrival complicates things. It’s wait-and-see until we’re sure who starts and what the dynamics will be.

Álvaro Rodríguez: 192 cm tall and does this?!

So, you thought Bournemouth would suddenly stop making out-of-the-box transfers?

No, of course not.

After introducing Eli Junior Kroupi, Rayan or Adrien Truffert last season, they’ve kicked off this pre-season by signing 22-year-old former Elche striker Álvaro Rodríguez for about £26 million.

On paper, the Uruguayan doesn’t seem particularly appealing or impactful, but when you dig deeper, you find he’s a unique player who will compete for a #9 role alongside Evanilson.

Despite playing for a La Liga club, which escaped relegation by just one point, Rodriguéz averaged 3 shots, 0.36 non-penalty xG and 0.15 xA per 90 minutes, which was far from random.

What stands out is not only the volume of shots and touches in the box, but also an ability to receive the ball in great positions – advanced data models absolutely love his receiving, which is a combination of physical attributes, intelligence, reading the game, and manipulating defenders with his movement.

What is truly fascinating is that, even though he’s 192 centimetres tall, he attempts about 3.50 take-ons per 90 minutes, and he can sometimes complete two or three 1-v-1s during the game, dribbling into dangerous positions to either shoot or pass.

For a player with that build, it’s unheard of. He’s also fouled a lot, which is good news for Bournemouth’s penalty taker.

As you might’ve guessed, he’s fantastic in the air. Of his 76 shots, 33 were headed attempts.

Frankly, I can’t wait to see how Rodríguez’s skills will translate to Premier League football and how quickly. Pretty nice buy, if you ask me.

The media are also reporting that the Cherries are interested in António Silva, a highly rated ball-playing Benfica centre-back. He is extremely natural with the ball at his feet and can both pass and drive it into space. Not this DEFCON nonsense. If they pull this off, I’m flying over, pitching a tent outside the training ground, and refusing to leave until they teach me the craft.

I’ll let you know in a future newsletter.

See you soon!

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As we’re progressing through the summer transfer window, it looks like clubs are making mostly sensible moves so far – it almost seems too good to be true.

Manchester United’s recruitment has taken a step in the right direction by signing Casemiro’s direct replacement, Andrey Santos, who deserves far more positive attention than he’s getting.

Today, I’ll also cover Youri Tielemans and how Aston Villa will cope with the loss of two key midfielders. Spoiler alert: there’s a section on Johan Manzambi.

Let’s do this:

Andrey Santos: What gets me so excited about the deal?

Is this article just an excuse to write about Andrey Santos?

Quite possibly…

In my Xabi Alonso and Chelsea preview, I noted that it’s the top 3 transfer of the summer, and I stand firmly by that. It might even turn out to be the best.

As you may know, Manchester United will return to Premier League action without Casemiro. Last season wasn’t his best, but he was still a positive influence, even at 33 – he regularly prevented dangerous attacks, dominated aerial duels, provided solid progression in the build-up phase, and scored 9 goals, the vast majority from set-pieces.

However, it was clear there were issues with his intensity and duelling on the ground, as well as with his ability to run and carry the ball forward.

The legs weren’t there, and another year in the physically demanding league would cause him to regress even further in those areas. Sadly, the trend forces you to have superb athletes in the middle of the pitch.

Spurs buying Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali is a good example of this, but there are several others throughout the league.

Securing a replacement was the top priority this transfer window. Kobbie Mainoo isn’t a high-volume ball-winning #6, and while Manuel Ugarte (who’s now out with a knee ligament injury) can play there and win those crucial balls, he doesn’t add much in terms of heading, carrying, or passing. The Ugarte and Mainoo double pivot would be a) too exploitable and imbalanced and b) wouldn’t add much in terms of passing.

Enter Andrey Santos.

Another Brazilian who shares many traits with his more famous compatriot.

Let me say this: Those 1,400 minutes at Chelsea don’t tell the full story of his ability, his impact, or why United decided to buy him.

3,000 minutes in Strasbourg do.

As I explained, United needed a new #6 who could cope with the physicality of the Premier League, add defensive stability, and have something extra – and they found it in Santos.

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Chelsea have recently experienced several turbulent managerial spells.

There was a brief affair with Enzo Maresca that ended in a messy break-up, driven by his unrelenting desire to become a new Manchester City manager. He later did, and we can look forward to more spice in the upcoming Premier League clashes between those two teams.

Liam Rosenior’s story is largely forgettable, not only because it lasted 106 days.

Now there’s hope for better times ahead.

Xabi Alonso is coming in, and you can’t deny there’s a different vibe this time.

Many of you are familiar with his illustrious playing career at Liverpool, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich, which saw him win 17 titles, including the 2010 World Cup, and work under Rafa Benítez, Carlo Ancelotti, José Mourinho, or Pep Guardiola.

His managerial one is much shorter, but far from dull.

So it begins…

Although his coaching journey began long before that, he truly put himself on the map in the 2023/24 season, when he took over Bayer 04 Leverkusen, a German Bundesliga club that had been struggling and was 17th after eight league games.

He ultimately guided them to 6th place.

I did my fair share of research for this article, which gave me good insight into how different that season was from the legendary title-winning one that followed. And the full picture is pretty revealing.

🎯 The main goal after his arrival was obvious: stabilise the defence at all costs and then build up the rest when the time is right.

In the 26 league games under his charge, Bayer recorded the 3rd-best xGC, conceding about 0.95 xG per game, a solid result.

To achieve that, he played a passive mid-block, focusing on compactness and a solid defensive structure, which allowed him to pick up second balls deep and look for opportunities to counter.

And it worked.

They defended magnificently in the low block (the best, really), and the rest defence was good enough not to concede too many big chances from fast transitions (4th-best xGA from counters).

*Rest defence is basically the shape a team maintains while attacking, so that if they lose the ball, it’s already set up to stop a counter. Think of it as the safety net behind the attack.

For most of the season, he wasn’t trying to implement his trademark counter-press.

That team literally gave up on it: there was very little re-pressing, and the press was generally one of the least intense in the Bundesliga.

Their overall xG was bang average, and they relied heavily on counters:

1️⃣ 3rd most counter-attacks
2️⃣ the 3rd highest xG from counters
3️⃣ … and the most goals scored from them

After reviewing the data and some clips, I genuinely applauded the board’s decision to let Alonso do his thing, even though it wasn’t the most pleasing football to watch.

It’s perhaps a guide to other teams not to fire their coaches in their first season, and to give them proper time to adapt and for the tactical model to click.

Unless it’s Liam Rosenior.

You can probably put a stop-loss on Liam Rosenior.

Anyway, Alonso was stabilising a broken team, and the tactical model just needed time to come together.

And it sure did in Leverkusen’s second season, which was… well, simply remarkable:

51 games.

361 days.

Bundesliga title (well deserved, as you’ll see in a bit).

Xabi Alonso and how to win the Bundesliga

In his second season, Alonso already had his defensive foundations in place and could build on them.

They recorded the lowest xG conceded, tied with Bayern, and there are several mind-blowing stats to document how dominant that season was.

This is my favourite:

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